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Coral reefs are among the most sensitive ecosystems affected by ocean warming and acidification, and are predicted to collapse over the next few decades. Reefs are predicted to shift from net accreting calcifier-dominated systems with exceptionally high biodiversity to net eroding algal-dominated systems with dramatically reduced biodiversity. Here, we present a two-year experimental study examining the responses of entire mesocosm coral reef communities to warming (+2 °C), acidification (−0.2 pH units), and combined future ocean (+2 °C, −0.2 pH) treatments. Contrary to modeled projections, we show that under future ocean conditions, these communities shift structure and composition yet persist as novel calcifying ecosystems with high biodiversity. Our results suggest that if climate change is limited to Paris Climate Agreement targets, coral reefs could persist in an altered state rather than collapse. 

Abstract Cryptic species (evolutionarily distinct lineages that do not align with morphologically defined species) are being increasingly discovered but are poorly integrated into ecological theory. In particular, we still lack a useful understanding of if and how cryptic species differ in ways that affect community recovery from disturbances and responses to anthropogenic stressors, such as the removal of consumers and pollution from nutrients. On coral reefs, nutrient pollution increases the growth of macroalgae that displace corals. Reductions in herbivorous fishes reduce the suppression of macroalgae, while reductions in coralivorous fishes reduce predation on corals. An unresolved question is if and how cryptic coral species respond differently to these impacts, thereby differing in their ability to influence coral community dynamics and maintain coral dominance. Therefore, we assessed how the response of crypticPocilloporaspecies over a period of three years following a simulated disturbance from a cyclone depended on the experimental reduction of fish consumer pressure and nutrient addition. After three years, five morphologically cryptic, but genetically distinct,Pocilloporaspecies recruited to the reef. However, recruitment was dominated by two species:Pocillopora tuahiniensis(46%) andPocillopora meandrina(43%). Under ambient conditions, recruitment ofP. tuahiniensisandP. meandrinawas similar, but experimentally reducing consumer pressure increased recruitment ofP. tuahiniensisby up to 73% and reduced recruitment ofP. meandrinaby up to 49%. In both species, nutrient enrichment increased recruitment and colony growth rates equally, but colonies ofP. tuahiniensisgrew faster and were up to 25% larger after three years than those ofP. meandrina,and growth was unaffected by reduced consumer pressure. Predation by excavating corallivorous fish was higher forP. meandrinathan forP. tuahiniensis, especially under nutrient enrichment. In contrast, polyp extension (an indicator of elevated heterotrophic feeding as well as susceptibility and attractiveness to corallivores) was lower forP. meandrinathan forP. tuahiniensis, especially under low to medium consumer pressure. Overall, we uncovered ecological differences in the response of morphologically cryptic foundation species to two pervasive stressors on coral reefs. Our results demonstrate how cryptic species respond differently to key anthropogenic stressors, which may contribute to response diversity that can support ecological resilience or increase extinction risk.